Episode #2 - Confusion

Week 17 - 2025

Week 16

Last week was unpredictable, this week started the same way. Trump decided last weekend to ease tariffs on big tech products from China. Naturally, that triggered a reaction on Monday in which the stock market jumped up. For a swing trader, there is hardly any arrow to be drawn. Trump's behaviour is too erratic and his influence on the stock market too great.

In recent years, I have been more into value investing than swing trading, so I have to admit that I need to get used to it. Maybe it is due to the market conditions, but it could also be that I just need some time to get into the right rhythm.

Although April is a test month, I wrote down a strategy beforehand. I suspect I did not properly link the chart duration ratio (say, 1 hour) to the correct swing term. I am currently focusing mainly on downward trades, but by the time I entered last week, the market was now in a recovery rebound. Or in other words, combined with a 2-hour chart, I need to consider the long term less and focus more on the shorter term (e.g. the EMA-20).

It sounds contradictory, but I suspect that with a 4-hour chart, I can catch the swings just fine. An additional advantage is that I don't have to be glued to the screen constantly. For European stocks I could limit myself to 9am, 1pm and 5pm.

Books on stock trading often advise you to choose a strategy that suits your personality. I have often found that short-term charts demand too much from me. I find it nervous and feel much more comfortable with the somewhat longer charts such as the 4-hour chart.

Week 17

On Monday, the European stock markets were closed, but in America, as we are used to by now, the stock markets were fairly down. It was notable that Netflix was the only one that lit up green and which I therefore bought in the evening. But more on that later.